Europe is hurtling towards the "red button". Nuclear exercises targeting Russia are set to take place in Poland and the Baltic States
Today I am providing my English translation of an article by Valerij Panov, originally in Russian and first published on stoletie.ru on Monday 27th April 2026 and then translated into Italian by Eliseo Bertolasi and published on ComeDonChisciotte.org on Saturday 2nd May 2026. (Italics original, bold emphasis and footnotes mine).
Russia must be prepared to use nuclear weapons against Europe. This was stated by the well-known Russian political scientist and Doctor of Historical Sciences, Sergei Karaganov. In an interview, he declared that “Europe has unleashed a war against Russia” by supporting Ukraine in arms production and other sectors.
According to him, “Europe must finally realise that it will be destroyed if the aggression continues. And the sooner it realises this, the fewer of our people will die”. Karaganov is convinced that “if a war is unleashed against us – and it is being unleashed – by an adversary that outnumbers and outmatches us economically, we must use nuclear weapons”.
Today, given their topicality, these and other extracts from Karaganov’s interview (Russian Spring) are being quoted by numerous Russian and international publications. As the Wall Street Journal writes, commenting on the disbursement of the €90 billion loan to Kiev, the war in Ukraine is now Europe’s war. There are already enough signs indicating that Europe is rapidly preparing, just as we are, for a war—and indeed a nuclear one. NATO (and EU) exercises involving the use of nuclear weapons (under certain conditions) near the Russian border have become routine.
Recently, the Wirtualna Polska website, citing reliable sources, reported that France and Poland are preparing to conduct joint air force exercises using Rafale fighter jets, which are capable of carrying missiles with nuclear warheads. The manoeuvres could take place shortly in northern Poland and the Baltic region. During the exercises, training in attacks against Russia will play an important role.
Speaking live on Radio Sputnik-Crimea, political expert and member of the Crimean Public Chamber, Zaur Smirnov, commenting on reports of French and Polish nuclear exercises near Russia’s Baltic borders, noted that “recently, during their exercises, the option of an attack on the Kaliningrad region involving an airborne landing was assessed. Previously, both politicians and military officials had made statements regarding attempts to blockade the Kaliningrad region. And I am convinced that this escalation will continue to intensify and that the West will seek to step up the pressure on Russia”. And that is indeed the case.
Speaking at the Ile Longue naval base on 2nd March [2026], French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France has entered a new phase in its nuclear doctrine – the concept of “advanced deterrence”.
As part of this concept, he acknowledged the possibility of temporarily deploying French aircraft carrying nuclear weapons on the territory of allied countries and named eight European countries that have agreed to participate in his plans. These are Germany, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece and Denmark. Joint nuclear exercises represent a very concrete step towards the implementation of Macron’s concept.
During the joint exercises in the Baltic, Paris and Warsaw will also practise the use of weapons of mass destruction against Russia. According to the exercise scenario, French and Polish aircraft will attack targets in a northern capital. The (simulated) strikes will involve cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads of 100 to 300 kilotons with a range of approximately 500 km. They will likely enter the airspace of the Baltic states, as it is not possible to reach St Petersburg from Poland.
As a reminder: the United States took on the nuclear role following the creation of NATO. Currently, European allies have doubts about Trump’s America’s ability to defend their countries in the event of a military conflict. Brussels intends to restructure the European security architecture. With this in mind, President Macron has proposed a French “umbrella” for Europe. France possesses missile-armed ships, each carrying several warheads. In addition to its naval component, France also has an air component: air-to-surface missiles with a range of up to 1,500 km. These missiles can be carried by specially equipped Mirage 2000 and Rafale aircraft.
The country possesses an arsenal of 300 nuclear warheads for “three sets of 16 submarine-launched missiles and 54 ASMP-A cruise missiles (medium-range, air-launched)”. President Macron himself cited these figures in 2020. The fact is that nuclear weapons in Europe are mainly American; according to various estimates, there are around 150 US-made bombs, deployed at bases in six countries, and although maintenance is carried out by local specialists, the “red button” is in Washington.
Although the procedures for deploying nuclear weapons in other countries are extremely complex and technologically advanced, three French Rafale aircraft are already stationed in Poland.
Apparently, Macron and the Polish leadership are seeking to establish a kind of diplomatic arrangement that would allow France to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland, while keeping the nuclear launch button in Paris. Incidentally, France is not the only country in this part of the world to possess the atomic bomb.
The UK’s nuclear arsenal has remained at 225 warheads for the past 20 years. Of these, 120 can be deployed on Vanguard-class ballistic missiles aboard four nuclear-powered submarines. The UK is building a new class of Dreadnought submarines and is working on a new nuclear warhead. Furthermore, it is expected that the UK will eventually expand its arsenal and that the Royal Air Force (RAF) base at Lakenheath will once again host a US Air Force nuclear mission in the coming years.
Consequently, European nuclear forces have just over 500 warheads, a number obviously significantly lower than that of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals. However, from the deployment areas of the French and British naval nuclear forces – in the North Atlantic and the North Sea – they can strike targets across virtually the whole of central Russia. The potential of Britain and France in a first strike is in the tens of warheads, perhaps even hundreds. The threat to Russia is substantial.
At the same time, Germany, for example, is not a nuclear-armed country. However, NATO countries may use American nuclear bombs or warheads with their own weaponry, but only at the discretion of the United States and NATO headquarters. In any case, the United States will play a decisive role. In addition to the actual storage and maintenance of American nuclear weapons, seven NATO member States – Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United States, as well as Turkey and Greece (in reserve and for emergencies) – have contributed to NATO’s nuclear mission with Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA). These aircraft can be used to transport nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict. Incidentally, all NATO member States participate in the NATO Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), which manages the collective policy and decision-making process regarding the bloc’s nuclear mission. Clearly, the process of nuclearizing Europe is gaining momentum.
Against the backdrop of US and French plans, the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] has warned of the threat of an expansion of the club of nuclear powers. According to the agency’s director, Rafael Grossi, more than twenty countries could, in the near future, begin work on their own nuclear arsenals or receive weapons supplied to them within the framework of military alliances. Grossi cited Poland and Sweden among the countries on the European continent where such sentiments are particularly evident.
Grossi had previously noted that Germany already possessed all the necessary technology and raw materials. Germany has the required nuclear material, and German specialists know how to use it. He estimates that Germany would be capable of producing nuclear weapons within a few months.
Currently, Grossi states, Washington and Paris are drawing up plans to create new storage facilities for their tactical nuclear warheads in Eastern Europe and at island bases in the Western Pacific. It is anticipated that local armed forces will be trained in the use of nuclear weapons and that their aircraft will acquire the technical capability to transport munitions to targets on the territory of Russia, Belarus and other allies of Moscow. When a State that does not possess its own nuclear weapons technology makes its territory and equipment available for the deployment of foreign warheads, it becomes a direct participant in the process of military deployment.
Given that Russia could attack a NATO member within a few months, as stated by Polish Prime Minister Tusk in an interview with the Financial Times, Poland and France will conduct nuclear attack drills against Belarus and Russia during manoeuvres in the Baltic Sea and northern Poland. Paris and Warsaw are considering “information exchanges and joint exercises” as part of a French initiative aimed at involving European NATO allies in the nuclear deterrence system. French aircraft carrying nuclear warheads are expected to fly to Poland, but the decision on the possible use of nuclear weapons will rest solely with the French President. The Kremlin commented on this statement, emphasising that Europe’s aspirations for further militarisation and nuclearization do not contribute to the stability and predictability of the continent.
Grossi also emphasised that the emergence of new States seeking protection under someone else’s nuclear umbrella makes the world more fragile and less governable. When the number of countries involved in joint missions with a nuclear component involving the United States and France exceeds twenty participants, the likelihood of potentially dangerous incidents increases significantly. According to Grossi, the deployment of nuclear infrastructure near the borders of Russia and Moscow’s strategic partners does not strengthen security, but merely increases the risk of an accidental conflict. But why only accidental? Europe is deliberately preparing for a nuclear conflict with Russia, or rather with the Union State of Belarus and Russia. “And if France and Poland are now discussing joint exercises involving nuclear deterrent assets, this is a direct provocation, not a response to a threat”, said Viktor Bondarev, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council’s Defence Committee.
Experts now say that Russia will not launch a conventional war against NATO. There will be no trenches or a “Special Military Operation-2”. There will be an immediate attack, with no pause and no restraint.
“If Europe starts a war, we are ready, even now! It will all happen very quickly. This is not Ukraine. After that, we simply won’t have anyone left to negotiate with”, warned Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Now, some significant figures: Russia possesses 5,900 nuclear warheads, while Europe (excluding the United States) has 515. Furthermore, Europe does not possess tactical nuclear weapons. France and Britain possess arsenals that are almost entirely strategic, intended for the “doctrine of assured destruction”, but, one might say, useless or almost useless for preventing or repelling Russian attacks. Europe is incapable of destroying Russia. The United States, therefore, will be faced with the question: is it worth dying for London, Paris, Berlin and so on? As they say: “Think about it, Donald Fredovich (Trump, son of Fred – ed.), think about it!”.
Commenting on a recent article in “Politico” regarding Europe’s alleged preparations for nuclear war due to a Russian threat, Senator Viktor Bondarev stated that a response would follow in the event of a direct threat to our country from NATO.
He stated on Telegram: “Russia, unlike them, actually possesses a nuclear arsenal that will guarantee our security. Let them have no illusions. Any attempt to bring NATO’s nuclear weapons closer to our borders will be monitored and, in the event of a direct threat, a response will follow, which will be the last for those who provoked it. Severe and irreversible”.
