Help get Geo-engineering Stopped Before it Starts!

This thin blue line is your atmosphere!

Yes, that’s all there is between you and Space, and killer-UV radiation and cosmic rays. Looking up it seems to go on forever, but it is really very thin and EXTREMELY important! That blue glow is the Sun activating the oxygen, creating the ozone layer that allows life on this planet. If it were gone, or shut down, the sky would be black as it is on the Moon, and Earth would be fried like the Moon is. So shall we beging screwing around with it, via geo-engineering schemes? Today’s post is about a seemingly innocuous step of “Progress” that is having severe unintended consequences - the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has been “doing good” by reducing sulfur in marine fuels. Should be a good thing, right? Except for the unintended consequence of rapidly-rising planetary temperatures, to the point that the Smart Ones are going to be calling for geo-engineering measures, really soon! We absolutely CANNOT allow further atmospheric experimentation - all life depends on it. Do write to your government people to get this mess corrected!

It all starts with good climate science, especially in a new release by Dr. James Hansen. But first, read this block section, courtesy of Courtesy of Guardian News & Media Ltd.:

February on course to break unprecedented number of heat records

by Jonathan Watts

“The planet is warming at an accelerating rate. We are seeing rapid temperature increases in the ocean, the climate’s largest reservoir of heat,” said Dr. Joel Hirschi, the associate head of marine systems modelling at the UK National Oceanography Centre. “The amplitude by which previous sea surface temperatures records were beaten in 2023 and now 2024 exceed expectations, though understanding why this is, is the subject of ongoing research.”

“Humanity is on a trajectory to experience the hottest February in recorded history, after a record January, December, November, October, September, August, July, June and May, according to the Berkeley Earth scientist Zeke Hausfather.”

But back to Dr. Hansen’s reports. As a backgrounder, here is Dr. Hansen on YouTube. Dr. Hansen works with Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Earth Institute, Columbia University.

He just released a paper, to his donor mailing list: CSAS Note.2024.02.14.pdf

To: CSAS supporters in the past several years

From: Jim Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato

Subject: Global Warming Acceleration, Research and Publication Priorities 14 Feb. 2024

(Some notes from this climate science update):

The darkening of Earth- albedo (reflectivity) has decreased since 2015 by the equivalent of 100 ppm CO₂ additional warming. This is due to decreasing aerosols, decreasing area of clouds and snow (and "human activity" such as deliberate deforestation and expansion of cities.)

Fig. 1. Earth’s albedo (left scale) and albedo change relative to average prior to 2015 (right scale) last point = Nov. 2023, from CERES data available at http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/order_data.php

This reduction in albedo results in higher Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR):

Fig. 5. Absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomaly of world (line) and regions of expected aerosol change or surface albedo feedback; CERES data available at http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/order_data.php

The increased solar absorption results in larger Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI):

The reduction in aerosols are due to efforts to "clean up the atmosphere" with efforts such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) with their unintended “experiment” of restrictions on sulfur in marine fuels initiated in 2015 and 2020. This is giving an additional new (non-GHG) forcing of 0.5-1.0 W/M².

Global warming (in conclusion to the "Pipeline" paper) has increased by at least 50% above the _rate_ in 1970-2010 and possibly by 100%. This post-2010 warming rate (0.36°C per decade) would breach 1.5°C level of warming by mid-2020s and 2°C by late 2030s. Dr. Hansen's researchers expect 12-month running-mean temperature to reach at least 1.6°C in 2024.

The “Pipeline” paper referred to above is Hansen J.E., et al.  (2023) “Global warming in the pipeline,” Oxford Open Climate Change, 2023, 3(1), kgad008, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008

From the Abstract:

"Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate."

(My discussion of the above points):

Item (3) indicates an opening to perform "geo-engineering" by injecting various substances into the atmosphere, from SO₂ to sulfate-coated aluminum particles to the tune of 5 mega-tonnes per year. I reject such technological tampering outright. This is one step of "Progress" too far. I would suggest repealing the IMO's unintentional climate experiment by returning to the previous sulfur-containing fuels for shipping. But you say, what's the difference? The difference is that this pollution is virtually at sea-level rather than being injected into the upper atmosphere where they will likely have unintended consequences for the ozone layer. The better remedy is to return to the higher-sulfur fuels WHILE totally winding down shipping (a measure of over-consumption). BYD automaker in China is building new ships to export their cars. No! We have enough cars on the planet, wind that down. I’m driving a 38-year-old Toyota Tercel wagon made with nuclear energy, less than 2500 km per year. WHY do YOU need a new car more often than that? Wind down all shipping except grain exports. End commercial air-travel. See, the issue is, people will move to geo-engineering to lower Earth's energy imbalance AND keep on burning fossil fuels! NO! Use the "dirtier" fuels while winding their use down to almost nothing. Dr. Hansen’s science is top-notch, but I find his policy solutions rather dismal. This climate discussion is apparently leaning in to promoting geo-engineering; his carbon-pricing proposals should be replaced with oxygen pricing; and nuclear energy which just should be avoided; we do NOT need ever-increasing quantities of energy!

This industrial-level civilization is a massive error and needs to be wound totally down. Not ever-expanding increase in energy consumption, not ever-increasing manufactured goods, it all must be wound down, ASAP. Now look at that Fig. 11 above - See that dip at the end of the green line? That dip was from the pandemic, when the Earth was much quieter from greatly reduced traffic noise, and CO₂ emissions dropped. See, we can do it! Just cut back on all the CRAP and emissions can drop. Learn to live more quietly!

AITNBE - As If That’s Not Bad Enough: Then there is the crap about our wonderful class of billionaires who would love to each do a weekly launch of Space tourism! Then for sure, you kiss the atmosphere as-you-knew-it goodbye.

Earth's Future - Research Article - Open Access

Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

by: Robert G. Ryan, Eloise A. Marais, Chloe J. Balhatchet, Sebastian D. Eastham

First published: 09 June 2022 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002612

Abstract

Detailed examination of the impact of modern space launches on the Earth's atmosphere is crucial, given booming investment in the space industry and an anticipated space tourism era. We develop air pollutant emissions inventories for rocket launches and re-entry of reusable components and debris in 2019 and for a speculative space tourism scenario based on the recent billionaire space race. This we include in the global GEOS-Chem model coupled to a radiative transfer model to determine the influence on stratospheric ozone (O3) and climate. Due to recent surge in re-entering debris and reusable components, nitrogen oxides from re-entry heating and chlorine from solid fuels contribute equally to all stratospheric O3 depletion by contemporary rockets. Decline in global stratospheric O3 is small (0.01%), but reaches 0.15% in the upper stratosphere (∼5 hPa, 40 km) in spring at 60–90°N after a decade of sustained 5.6% a−1 growth in 2019 launches and re-entries. This increases to 0.24% with a decade of emissions from space tourism rockets, undermining O3 recovery achieved with the Montreal Protocol. Rocket emissions of black carbon (BC) produce substantial global mean radiative forcing of 8 mW m² after just 3 years of routine space tourism launches. This is a much greater contribution to global radiative forcing (6%) than emissions (0.02%) of all other BC sources, as radiative forcing per unit mass emitted is ∼500 times more than surface and aviation sources. The O3 damage and climate effect we estimate should motivate regulation of an industry poised for rapid growth.

Key Points: Air pollutant emission inventory for current space sector and future tourism input to a coupled chemistry and radiative transfer model.

Upper stratospheric Arctic ozone loss from launch chlorine and re-entry nitrogen oxide emissions undermines Montreal Protocol success.

Warming efficiency of space tourism (soot) emissions about 500-times greater than surface and aircraft sources of soot.

Plain Language Summary:

It is imperative that we understand the current and future risks to Earth's atmosphere posed by pollution from rocket launches and re-entry heating of reusable and discarded rocket parts and historical debris. Rockets, unlike other anthropogenic pollution sources, emit gaseous and solid chemicals directly into the upper atmosphere. We compile inventories of these chemicals from rocket launches in 2019 and projections of future growth and speculative space tourism activity. We incorporate these in a 3D atmospheric chemistry model to simulate the impact on climate and the protective stratospheric ozone layer. We find that loss of ozone due to current rockets is small, but that routine space tourism launches may undermine progress made by the Montreal Protocol in reversing ozone depletion in the Arctic springtime upper stratosphere. The BC (or soot) particles from rockets are also of great concern, as these are almost five hundred times more efficient at warming the atmosphere than all other sources of soot combined. These findings demonstrate an urgent need to develop environmental regulation to mitigate damage from this rapidly growing industry.

Industry? A growing industry? While out atmosphere is under severe attack in so many ways? ALL Space launches must stop now and forever with the only exemption being Earth study satellites. Everything else is Progress that we just do not need and our thin atmosphere can’t afford the damage.