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Nicholas Geary's avatar

Nobody is going to have to "maintain" nuclear used fuel for hundreds of thousands of years. We are already developing molten salt fast reactors which will be able to consume everything except the fission products, Curio would like to mine the fission products for usable isotopes, and the fission products we choose to discard can go down a Deep Isolation-style borehole, where they won't need any further attention from anybody, ever. If you multiply the per-capita electricity consumption for the U.S. (including electricity for business, government, industry, etc) by the average life span of a U.S. citizen, a lifetime supply of electricity for 1 person works out to be roughly 1 gigawatt hour. Generating that much electricity by nuclear power produces about 120 grams of fission products, and 98 grams of that will not be radioactive after 10 years. And most of the active remainder is cesium 137 and strontium 90, which will lose 99.9% of their radioactivity each 300 years (though we actually have uses for those two isotopes). That is an incredibly tiny waste profile for a lifetime supply of 100% nuclear-generated electricity, and it will be even less if we also use wind and solar and hydro.

Nuclear energy does indeed produce heat, so it has to be converted into electricity if that's what we want to do with that heat. But there are a lot of other things you can do with heat... like industrial materials processing, pyrolysis for plastics recycling, hydrogen production, chemical refining, synthetic fuels and fertilizer production, ship propulsion, direct-air CO2 removal, and much more. High heat is also a great way to store energy so that it can be used when it is most needed--much easier and cheaper than storing energy in the form of electrons.

Nuclear engineers and scientists, like Alvin Weinberg, tried to warn Rickover he had chosen the wrong kind of reactor for civilian nuclear power. He dismissed their warnings because he felt he knew better. And then when it all went wrong in exactly the ways they warned him it would, he found it easier and more comfortable to condemn nuclear power than to accept responsibility for his own arrogance and poor judgment. And Rickover was wrong, life on Earth began at least 3.7 billion years ago (that we have direct evidence for) and possibly more than 4 billion years ago--back when the Earth was far more radioactive than it is now.

Regarding the discharge of tritium-contaminated water from Fukushima, the needed context is the amount. Atomic bomb testing released between 500 and 700 kg. of tritium. We literally don't know to the nearest 100 kg. how much was released, and it might have been the largest tritium pulse in Earth history. Even so, no effect on marine life or human health was detected. Today, there is still around 8 kg. of bomb tritium still in the Pacific. Normal creation of natural tritium is around 0.4 kilograms per year (this varies with solar activity). So how much will be released from Fukushima? The release rate is capped at 0.06 grams per year. But in the first year of release, roughly 435 grams of Pacific bomb tritium will decay away, so tritium will be decreasing in the Pacific about 7000 times faster than the Fukushima discharge will be adding to it.

The Fukushima discharge will also contain some carbon 14. Total C-14 inventory in the storage tanks right now--about 0.336 grams. Pacific natural C-14 inventory: roughly 18 metric tonnes.Nobody is going to have to "maintain" nuclear used fuel for hundreds of thousands of years. We are already developing molten salt fast reactors which will be able to consume everything except the fission products, Curio would like to mine the fission products for usable isotopes, and the fission products we choose to discard can go down a Deep Isolation-style borehole, where they won't need any further attention from anybody, ever. If you multiply the per-capita electricity consumption for the U.S. (including electricity for business, government, industry, etc) by the average life span of a U.S. citizen, a lifetime supply of electricity for 1 person works out to be roughly 1 gigawatt hour. Generating that much electricity by nuclear power produces about 120 grams of fission products, and 98 grams of that will not be radioactive after 10 years. And most of the active remainder is cesium 137 and strontium 90, which will lose 99.9% of their radioactivity each 300 years (though we actually have uses for those two isotopes). That is an incredibly tiny waste profile for a lifetime supply of 100% nuclear-generated electricity, and it will be even less if we also use wind and solar and hydro.

Nuclear energy does indeed produce heat, so it has to be converted into electricity if that's what we want to do with that heat. But there are a lot of other things you can do with heat... like industrial materials processing, pyrolysis for plastics recycling, hydrogen production, chemical refining, synthetic fuels and fertilizer production, ship propulsion, direct-air CO2 removal, and much more. High heat is also a great way to store energy so that it can be used when it is most needed--much easier and cheaper than storing energy in the form of electrons.

Nuclear engineers and scientists, like Alvin Weinberg, tried to warn Rickover he had chosen the wrong kind of reactor for civilian nuclear power. He dismissed their warnings because he felt he knew better. And then when it all went wrong in exactly the ways they warned him it would, he found it easier and more comfortable to condemn nuclear power than to accept responsibility for his own arrogance and poor judgment. And Rickover was wrong, life on Earth began at least 3.7 billion years ago (that we have direct evidence for) and possibly more than 4 billion years ago--back when the Earth was far more radioactive than it is now.

Regarding the discharge of tritium-contaminated water from Fukushima, the needed context is the amount. Atomic bomb testing released between 500 and 700 kg. of tritium. We literally don't know to the nearest 100 kg. how much was released, and it might have been the largest tritium pulse in Earth history. Even so, no effect on marine life or human health was detected. Today, there is still around 8 kg. of bomb tritium still in the Pacific. Normal creation of natural tritium is around 0.4 kilograms per year (this varies with solar activity). So how much will be released from Fukushima? The release rate is capped at 0.06 grams per year. But in the first year of release, roughly 435 grams of Pacific bomb tritium will decay away, so tritium will be decreasing in the Pacific about 7000 times faster than the Fukushima discharge will be adding to it.

The Fukushima discharge will also contain some carbon 14. Total C-14 inventory in the storage tanks right now--about 0.336 grams. Pacific natural C-14 inventory: roughly 18 metric tonnes.

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